en 
In 2025, tax expenditure on the Non-Habitual Residents (RNH) regime is expected to see the biggest increase since it was created in 2009.
Government forecasts point to a growth of €446 million compared to last year's forecast, for a record €1.7 billion. The data appears in the State Budget proposal for 2025 (OE2025) delivered by the Executive.
According to Expresso, the transitional regime, created between the end of the NHR and the beginning of the IFICI (tax incentive for scientific research and innovation), would have led to a rush of requests.
All things considered, the cost of this measure will be, in 2025, almost ten times greater than the €174 million budgeted for 2016, the first year in which fiscal expenditure with this regime began to be detailed in the maps of the OE proposals.
The publication also writes that with the NHR program, given the expenditure expected for this year, the Ministry of Finance entered an additional €446 million under the fiscal expenditure heading, the biggest growth since 2016. In this way, the weekly details, the revenue that the State, in theory, dispenses with these taxpayers by not charging them the general IRS rates, thus rising from 1.2 billion euros predicted in 2024 to 1.7 billion euros in 2025, an increase of 36%.
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Well we've spent the same money but guess what, half of Portuguese shops are proud to not pay taxes. Not our fault.
By Darren Johnstone from Porto on 31 Oct 2024, 20:02
The conclusion is to simple (dispenses with these taxpayers by not charging them the general IRS rates). Most likely those people would not come to Portugal without the NHR regime. So it is a net plus for tax revenue. In addition most will not use the social/healthcare/school system as all is done privately, another plus.
By Robert from Lisbon on 01 Nov 2024, 06:46
Referring to the article - "Counting the cost of the NHR regime” – and challenging the logic therein that, the tax paid by those with NHR status constitutes a loss in revenue for the Portuguese state, I have a single question for the article author(s) and their faithful messengers – are those with NHR status individuals that theretofore paid income tax outside of Portugal or in Portugal?
By manel from Other on 01 Nov 2024, 09:10
This is obviously not true. Let me give you a simple example.
A “friend of mine” is living in Portugal and it is “having” a tax break of 100k per year. So according to this article the government is losing a 100k taxes that it has never had.
Well, let’s be frank. This is pretty much like me saying that when I got married, Gisele Bundchen lost the opportunity to meet the love of her life.
Without that tax benefit, my friend would never be here!! So there is no tax loss!
Now that he is here, and he spends 100-150k per year in Portugal, all this, in a way of the other goes to the government.
So let’s stop lying, and face the truth. NHR is one of the best things that happened to Portugal since wine and olive trees.
By Diego Cunha from Lisbon on 01 Nov 2024, 10:35
Well NHR I think was created as a response to the financial crisis of 2008/9 which presented great problems for Portugal - in doing so it has attracted billions of euros into the reserves of Portugal and NHR recipients have spent millions maybe billions into the Portuguese economy on which the vendors or products from food to housing and much more have paid tax income that would not have existed without the scheme? So I would think that NHR has been and continues to be a plus for both sides - on that basis it should be continued for the good of all. To say it has a cost without reflecting the return is bad journalism. So many have “found” Portugal to be one of the best countries in the world, never having considered it before, the NHR structure is only part of the attraction….
By Dick Smith from Algarve on 01 Nov 2024, 10:35
Why only mention tax lost these people should not have come and more entrenpenuers are coming form UK and US now and other parts of these world creating enterprises, high value jobs, spending in the economy and delivering other tax take form value added taxss, professional tax taken from other countries, 10% of UK and other countries monies that would have stayed in their country of origin. They buy more from Portuguese companies that would not be there. Portugal like Greece was bankrupt and NHR was its savour. The new scheme NHR is not going to offer tax benefit on pensions but to young talent which country needs, entrepreneurs and investors., Luxembourg, Singapore, Swiss, US, and Monaco welcome money and entrenpenuers and talent and look they thrive. NHR was amazing and what is set to replace it could be even better for Portugal. UK is losing its talent and value creators. US is also for difrent reasons wanting to invest in Portugal. This piece is so narrow and illogical as you can’t lose tax that wasn’t your citizens to tax. The country has to create opportunities for people and that needs investors and value creators to get the productivity. It has to alongside that give housing and other opportunities to the people that support this inward investments. Can we have more invest please please
By Andrea from Algarve on 01 Nov 2024, 10:58
This article is full of disinformation and will lead people to form inaccurate opinions of the NHR program. The "expense" quote assumes that all who participate in NHR would be here and pay full tax rates into the Portuguese system, which is not the case. The article fails to highlight the benefits those in the NHR regime bring to Portugal. Most participants have higher income levels, and most pay more taxes into the system, even under NHR, than most Portuguese taxpayers. Not to mention the greater spending power and reduced burden on National programs like healthcare and education.
By Anthony from Algarve on 01 Nov 2024, 11:34
Very strange way of looking at the benefits and costs. Recommend new accountants.
By Mick from Other on 01 Nov 2024, 11:44
This is kind of like Abbot and Costello doing 13 times 7 is 28.
What a strange take.
If I had to pay tax in Portugal ( on income that was not earned here) with no offset, I would not stay here for over 180 days....and neither would anybody else.
So now Portugal gets a tax on my pension, I pay VAT somewheres each day.
I employ a Portuguese contractor, I shop at local businesses and do volunteer work
If you want to calculate a loss, think of what you would lose if we all went home before being subjected to World wide taxes.
Diego I understand your pain, I will be in Miami soon.
If I bump into Gisele should I tell her you are still available?
By jk from Algarve on 02 Nov 2024, 16:26
More pertinent than the lost opportunity cost is the social cost both in terms of the Portuguese citizens who find themselves priced out of housing by an influx of foreign buyers and the inequality it breeds in society. Foreigners earning millions paying a smaller percentage of their income than Portuguese with modest incomes struggling to survive is morally wrong and simply unfair. That breeds societal discontent. There are other ways to attract investment into a country that empower citizens and help provide options for employment that are not service sector led. Most foreigners don't move here for purely monetary reasons and, if they do, they're frankly not the kind of people that Portugal should want.
By Jane from Lisbon on 03 Nov 2024, 14:19