The end of the golden visa and NHR programme appears to have little effect on the housing market, particularly in Lisbon, with prices rising in the capital above European levels.
According to a report by Bloomberg, the most recent data suggests that the mild climate, quality of life, security and good health and education services that Portugal offers continue to attract foreigners to live in the country. And house prices in Lisbon continue to be attractive, as they are around half of those in Paris or Zurich, writes Bloomberg.
“Despite these changes, we have seen an increase in the number of requests for information from our foreign clients”, said Paulo Silva, from Savills in Portugal, admitting that “there are simply not enough houses to meet demand, even with the slowdown in sales”.
Houses for sale in Lisbon, for example, continue to grow and even reached a record high in November. Specifically, the cost of houses in Lisbon increased by 5.8% in November compared to the previous year, to a maximum value of 5,426 euros per square meter (euros/m2), according to idealista. “This is the second biggest increase in Europe, after Athens [+11.8%], the hottest real estate market among the main European cities”.
Following Lisbon, prices for houses to buy increased by 5% in Stockholm, while prices in Madrid and Milan continue to rise steadily at a rate of over 3%. In Paris, prices fell by 6.1% and in Berlin they fell by almost 3%, according to Bloomberg.
Current house prices in Lisbon – which have risen, mainly due to the lack of supply for the high demand, which was driven by foreigners – are, therefore, beyond the reach of the majority of inhabitants, who now see their purchasing power even more under pressure.
This is really not surprising to anyone... limiting Airbnb, ending Golden Visa, ending NHR - all these are popularist political measures and unlikely to have any real impact on making housing more affordable. The problem is on the supply side. These measure won't impact demand
By Tim from Lisbon on 21 Dec 2023, 10:43
What nonsense from an estate agent trying to talk up their business. The changes in the NHR and Golden Visa programmes haven't yet had time to work through, so it is too early to draw conclusions. Secondly, buyers with a tax residence outside of Portugal account for only 7% of purchases, and while some foreigners wait until they're resident, I'd be surprised if in total foreign buyers account for more than 10-12% of purchases. Plus, they're often buying in a different price segment to the Portuguese, more upmarket. This notion that foreign buyers are pushing up property prices is therefore total nonsense.
By Billy Bissett from Porto on 21 Dec 2023, 10:55