Continuous rising house prices in the country does not mean that Portugal has or will have a real estate bubble, as there continues to be a scarce supply of housing and resilient employment, according to António Ramalho, who was speaking at the Portugal Real Estate Summit.
Today, “house price growth is moderating, with adverse base effects and tighter financial conditions. Demand remains resilient, but transactions are decreasing", said António Ramalho. But", despite what many say, in Portugal there is not a real estate bubble and we will never see one”, he highlighted, according to Jornal Económico.
He pointed out several reasons that support his view. To begin with, the job market in Portugal is robust. And the demand for houses continues to be much higher than the existing housing supply (unlike what happened in the 2008 housing crisis, when there were more construction projects than buyers). Furthermore, it was the demand for housing from abroad and high tourist activity that fuelled the growth in house prices in recent years.
The former Minister of Economy and Digital Transition, Pedro Siza Vieira, also ruled out the hypothesis that Portugal would have a real estate bubble. “What António Ramalho demonstrated is that the Portuguese market is actually very mature, where a large part of the Portuguese own the houses where they live, a significant part of these almost two million families have their houses almost paid for”, he stated quoted by the same newspaper.
"Unlike other peripheral destinations, Portugal continues to be a low-risk market due to its local importance. I can't say that Portugal is the best real estate market in the world, but it is one of the best", highlighted the former CEO of Novo Banco at the event.
Naturally Mr. Ramalho would say that.. after all.. where was he speaking again ??!!!
By Claudio from Other on 25 Sep 2023, 12:32
Never say never. You only know there's been a bubble once it bursts. That has happened often in the last few decades. The employment market can weaken and cause reduced demand for home purchases too. Nothing is impossible. Amazing that a bank CEO can be so backward looking.
By Billy Bissett from Porto on 25 Sep 2023, 15:28
Wishful thinking
By Nick from Lisbon on 25 Sep 2023, 17:39
I have heard that before in other places from Hong Kong to the US. Shortly after real estate plunged
By warren trout from USA on 25 Sep 2023, 19:43
Wow, did he Jynx us all or what? I remember back in 2008 major players in Real Estate saying "There will be no bubble". Then it all crashed. Him saying this worries me more not less.
By William McAdoo from Algarve on 26 Sep 2023, 13:57
Well, if by robust employment market he means the unbridled immigration of people from Brazil, India and Africa, who are willing to take any job at any pay... he is certainly right. Mind you, just last month Portugal reported a record exodus of young graduates to nordic countries. RE is inflated and continue to be so as more immigrants come in and are willing to share a one-bedroom flat with 5-10 other people. Corrupt politicians with their hands on RE are making sure it says up while the native population is simply packing. The NHS is dying, there are no teachers, so education is dying as well, 60% tax on fuel, food expenditure at an all-time high... but of course, real estate slicks gotta keep selling the dream.
By Elbie from Porto on 27 Sep 2023, 04:02
Portugal had the highest occupancy rate in Europe during summer (75% vs 66% European average) and data for the Sep-Nov 23 shows an increased demand of 20% vs 2022. The only entity that can create a bubble are governments with their restrictions on by short term rental, lowering real estate yields and thus making them overvaluated.
By André from Alentejo on 27 Sep 2023, 11:50