In the State Budget proposal for 2025, the executive estimates growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.

The forecasts therefore remain unchanged from those in the final report under Article IV, released earlier this month, when they had been revised downwards compared to July (when the IMF estimated growth of 2% this year).

In the World Economic Outlook, the IMF also provides a five-year projection, for 2029, when it indicates that GDP will grow 1.9%.

The document also includes quarterly projections, which point to year-on-year growth of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2.3% in the last quarter of 2025.

It is noteworthy that the projections for this year "are based on the budget approved by the authorities, adjusted to reflect the macroeconomic forecasts of the IMF staff." "The later projections are based on the assumption of unchanged policies," the IMF notes, while the projections for 2024 "reflect information available in the 2024 budget proposal."

According to these forecasts, Portugal will continue to grow above the euro zone economy, which the IMF projects will grow 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, with countries like Germany weighing on performance.

As for inflation, the IMF estimates that the rate of change in consumer prices in Portugal will slow down to 2.5% this year and 2.1% next year. With regard to unemployment, the organisation predicts a rate of 6.5% in 2024 and 6.4% in 2025.