According to the document released by the CFP, "it is estimated that the reduction in withholding taxes at source for IRS purposes in the months of September and October 2024 will imply an increase in direct tax revenue of 1,167 million in 2025, through the reduction in refunds".

Nazaré da Costa Cabral, president of the CFP, explained at the presentation of this report, in Lisbon, that this issue "is complicated to estimate because refunds depend to a certain extent on the level of withholding taxes in 2024 and it was necessary to have more detailed information to know at which households these withholdings occurred and what this will translate into in terms of revenue".

When asked about the adjustment of withholding taxes made last year, the official pointed out that "it was a policy option": "what the Government did in 2024 was to give up part of its revenue, and speaking of measures in a context of tax relief, the IRS suffered a reduction".

"The mechanical effect of applying the withholding tables meant that the State gave up more revenue than it could have obtained if the measure had not been adopted", which "will have a favorable economic impact in 2025", he explained.

The CFP points out in the report that this effect is punctual and that it has put forward a downward revision of direct taxes that "is determined, almost in its entirety, by the approval of permanent measures aimed at increasing the income of families and companies".

There is "no repetition, in 2026, of the positive and punctual effect (revised upwards in this projection) associated with a lower volume of refunds in 2025, resulting from the anticipation in the months of September and October 2024 of a part of the refunds on account of the 2024 IRS, which would be paid in 2025", highlights the CFP.